The Information
OpenAI expands inference cluster capacity ahead of next training run
Reliable secondaryFeb 18, 2026Relevance78
DiscoverYES YES NO YES YES NO
AIResolves Dec 1, 2026$4.8M volume12.4K forecasters
Will OpenAI release its next major GPT model before December 2026?
Resolves YES if a new flagship GPT-series model becomes generally available to the public before December 1, 2026. Point releases, distilled variants, and research previews without general availability do not count.
Set a lens and this page will tell you why the question matters for you, plus a second reading if you weight one agent more. Set your lens
Market probability
72%
+8% this week
Contrary forecast
54%
Confidence68%
Difference
−18%
Large disagreement with consensus
Probability over time
Market consensusContrary forecast
Running the forecast
- Gathering evidence…
- Checking historical base rates…
- Reading recent developments…
- Challenging assumptions…
- Comparing against market consensus…
- Auditing sources for circular reporting…
- Aggregating agent forecasts…
Why we disagree
Contrary sits 18 points below consensus. The market is pricing an imminent flagship, but this question requires general availability before December 1, and the most reliable leading indicator, a public developer preview, is absent after 90 days. Three bullish reports share a single original source, so the evidence base is narrower than its headline count.
Market consensus
72%
5 weighted signals
Contrary forecast
54%
+8
+6
−12
−11
−9
Pushes toward YESNet −18 pointsPushes toward NO
Pushes toward YES
Pushes toward NO
What could make this wrong
- The question turns on general availability, but most reporting describes announcements, the two have diverged by months before.
- What counts as a 'major' model is contested; a strongly-marketed point release could trigger a resolution dispute.
- A late-November launch window is plausible and sits within days of the cutoff.
What would change the forecast?
Toggle a scenario to see how Contrary would revise its probability if that development were confirmed.
Current
54%
With scenarios
54%
No scenarios appliedMarket 72%
Time Machine
Rewind to any point and see only what was knowable then. Nothing published after the selected date is used.
Aug 8, 2026Today
Snapshot 6 of 6
Market consensusContrary forecast
Data through Aug 8Market
72%
Contrary
54%
−18 points of disagreement
The widest disagreement of the year. Contrary is 18 points below consensus, driven by a missing preview and a narrow source base.
What Contrary noticed
- Developer changelog confirms no preview in 90 days
- Skeptic audit collapses three reports into one original source
Events that moved the forecast
Skeptic audit lands−4
Circular reporting identified; bullish evidence re-weighted downward.
Sources available on this date (7)
UnverifiedTechCrunch
UnverifiedSocial aggregator
DuplicateArs Technica
PrimaryOpenAI developer changelog
Sources
Every factor traces to a source. The Skeptic Agent reduces the influence of weak, unverified, or duplicated reporting.
2 primary2 reliable secondary2 unverified1 duplicate
YES
OpenAI Careers
14 new post-training evaluation and safety roles posted
PrimaryMar 6, 2026Relevance62
Reuters
Two rival labs ship frontier updates within three weeks
Reliable secondaryMay 11, 2026Relevance70
TechCrunch
Sources say next flagship model slips toward early 2027
UnverifiedJun 24, 2026Relevance66
Skeptic Agent: Single anonymous source, no corroborating reporting
Social aggregator
Screenshot claims an internal model card leaked
UnverifiedJul 2, 2026Relevance28
Skeptic Agent: Image unverifiable; original post deleted within hours
Ars Technica
What we know so far about OpenAI's next model
DuplicateJul 29, 2026Relevance34
Skeptic Agent: Restates The Information reporting; adds no new sourcing
OpenAI developer changelog
No new preview endpoints registered in the last 90 days
PrimaryAug 4, 2026Relevance72