AIResolves Jan 1, 2027$1.5M volume6.2K forecasters

Will an open-weights model rank #1 on a major public benchmark before January 2027?

Resolves YES if a model with publicly downloadable weights holds the top position on a widely-recognised public leaderboard for at least seven consecutive days before January 1, 2027.

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Market probability

23%

+3% this week

Contrary forecast

38%

Confidence64%

Difference

+15%

Large disagreement with consensus

Probability over time

Market consensusContrary forecast

Running the forecast

Gathering evidence…
Checking historical base rates…
Reading recent developments…
Challenging assumptions…
Comparing against market consensus…
Auditing sources for circular reporting…
Aggregating agent forecasts…

Why we disagree

Contrary is 15 points above consensus. The market is pricing durable open-weights supremacy, but the question only requires a seven-day hold, and the gap to the closed leader is now inside three points after five quarters of steady convergence.

Market consensus

23%

4 weighted signals

Contrary forecast

38%

−3

Pushes toward YESNet +15 pointsPushes toward NO

Pushes toward YES

Pushes toward NO

What could make this wrong

'Major public benchmark' is ambiguous and different leaderboards would resolve differently.
A seven-day hold is fragile, closed labs can respond within days.

What would change the forecast?

Toggle a scenario to see how Contrary would revise its probability if that development were confirmed.

Current

38%

With scenarios

38%

No scenarios appliedMarket 23%

An open-weights model takes the top spot at all

Even a brief lead makes the seven-day hold plausible.

38%72%

30% likely

A major closed release lands in Q4

A frontier release would reset the gap for months.

38%24%

55% likely

Benchmark operator changes methodology

Scoring changes have reshuffled the top three twice before.

38%47%

20% likely

Sources

Every factor traces to a source. The Skeptic Agent reduces the influence of weak, unverified, or duplicated reporting.

2 primary2 reliable secondary0 unverified0 duplicate

Model release page

Open-weights release lands within 3 points of the leader

YES

PrimaryJul 11, 2026Relevance84

Leaderboard changelog

Gap between open and closed leaders narrowed for a fifth quarter

YES

PrimaryJun 28, 2026Relevance78

Compute provider announcement

New sponsored compute programme for open model training

YES

Reliable secondaryMay 19, 2026Relevance55

Research preprint

Closed labs hold reserve capacity for leaderboard responses

Reliable secondaryApr 8, 2026Relevance60