EconomyResolves Jan 15, 2027$3.0M volume8.4K forecasters

Will US headline CPI come in below 2.5% year-over-year in the December 2026 print?

Resolves YES if the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports headline CPI inflation below 2.5% year-over-year for December 2026, as published in the initial release.

Set a lens and this page will tell you why the question matters for you, plus a second reading if you weight one agent more. Set your lens

Market probability

47%

−3% this week

Contrary forecast

55%

Confidence73%

Difference

+8%

Moderate disagreement with consensus

Probability over time

Market consensusContrary forecast

Running the forecast

Gathering evidence…
Checking historical base rates…
Reading recent developments…
Challenging assumptions…
Comparing against market consensus…
Auditing sources for circular reporting…
Aggregating agent forecasts…

Why we disagree

Contrary is 8 points above consensus. Shelter, the largest component, has decelerated for four straight months and turns slowly. The market repriced sharply on one goods release, which historically contributes under a tenth of a point to the headline rate.

Market consensus

47%

5 weighted signals

Contrary forecast

55%

−4

−2

Pushes toward YESNet +8 pointsPushes toward NO

Pushes toward YES

Pushes toward NO

What could make this wrong

The question resolves on the initial release, so subsequent revisions do not count.
A rounding boundary at 2.45–2.5% makes near-threshold outcomes contentious.

What would change the forecast?

Toggle a scenario to see how Contrary would revise its probability if that development were confirmed.

Current

55%

With scenarios

55%

No scenarios appliedMarket 47%

Shelter decelerates again in September

A fifth month would make the December threshold likely.

55%70%

50% likely

Energy rises more than 8% in Q4

The most common cause of upside surprises in headline CPI.

55%34%

20% likely

A hot October core print

Would signal breadth beyond goods and change the picture.

55%42%

30% likely

Sources

Every factor traces to a source. The Skeptic Agent reduces the influence of weak, unverified, or duplicated reporting.

2 primary2 reliable secondary0 unverified0 duplicate

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Shelter component decelerates for a fourth month

YES

PrimaryJul 14, 2026Relevance88

Energy Information Administration

Forward curve implies flat energy prices into Q4

YES

PrimaryJul 30, 2026Relevance70

Bloomberg

Goods prices tick up on freight cost pass-through

Reliable secondaryAug 2, 2026Relevance66

Bank research note

Base effects turn unfavourable in Q4

Reliable secondaryJun 20, 2026Relevance75